Steam's Popular Upcoming list: what it is and how games reach it
2 min read
By Eduardo Orellana ·
Popular Upcoming is the list on Steam's front page of unreleased games about to launch, ranked by popularity. It is the one place Valve says wishlists directly affect visibility. Chris Zukowski of How To Market A Game puts the practical entry point at around 7,000 wishlists, though games have appeared with about 5,500 in a quiet week, because the list ranks you against whatever else releases in the same window, by wishlists, their recent pace and the release date.
The one list where wishlists move you
Valve's visibility documentation is blunt that wishlists are not a factor in algorithmic visibility, with an exception: Popular Upcoming. A game that reaches it in the days before release gets front-page exposure to players browsing what is coming, which is why the list carries so much weight in developer talk.
How the list ranks
Valve does not publish the formula. Developers who have watched it, including Zukowski, describe a mix of total wishlists, how fast wishlists are coming in, and how close the release is. It is relative: you are ranked against the other games releasing around the same time.
The 7,000 rule of thumb
Zukowski's benchmark is about 7,000 wishlists as the point where a game will probably reach Popular Upcoming at some point before launch, with exceptions both ways: games at about 5,500 in a quiet week, games well above 7,000 missing it in a crowded one. He suggests checking SteamDB: a game ranked among the top 1,000 wishlisted unreleased games there usually appears on the list. See our 7,000 wishlists guide.
What moves you up
- A release date in a quieter week; a range such as "Q2" files you at its last day.
- Wishlist pace near launch: a trailer, a demo, a festival or creator coverage in the weeks before release.
- The total, built over months by the store page, devlogs and Next Fest.
Where Flockbay fits
Flockbay's Steam numbers read your followers and an estimated wishlist range, and your exact wishlists from your own Steamworks key (never leaving your machine), free on every account. Its publishing tools build the pace: the Steam page, trailers, posts and ads on your own accounts, free in beta until 1 December 2026.
Questions
- How many wishlists do you need for Popular Upcoming?
- There is no fixed number. Chris Zukowski's rule of thumb is about 7,000, with games appearing at about 5,500 in quiet weeks.