How many wishlists do you need before launch?
2 min read
By Eduardo Orellana ·
Work it back from the sales you need. GameDiscoverCo found the median game launching with over 25,000 wishlists sold about 0.15 copies per wishlist in its first week (September 2024 to September 2025 launches), or 0.10 for games above $10. So 10,000 wishlists suggests roughly 1,000 to 1,500 first-week sales, with an order of magnitude of spread either way. Separately, about 7,000 is Chris Zukowski's rule of thumb for reaching Steam's Popular Upcoming list.
The right number is the one your budget needs
Asking how many wishlists you need is asking how many sales you need. Start from what the game must earn, divide by the price after Steam's share and taxes, and work back to wishlists with a conversion rate. The answer is yours, not a forum's.
The conversion figures
- GameDiscoverCo, launches from September 2024 to September 2025 with over 25,000 wishlists: median 0.15× first-week sales per wishlist; 0.10× for games priced above $10.
- Rates vary by an order of magnitude between games; underperformers had lower first-week review scores and had spent longer on Steam before launch.
- Earlier GameDiscoverCo samples with lower wishlist floors found similar medians, around 0.1 to 0.17.
A worked example
You need $30,000 in the first month from a $15 game. After Steam's 30% and roughly 10% for taxes and refunds, each sale nets about $9.45, so you need about 3,200 sales. At 0.10× in week one, plus a first month a little more than double week one, that points to roughly 15,000 wishlists. Adjust the multipliers to your genre and price.
And the 7,000 figure?
That is Chris Zukowski's rule of thumb for reaching Popular Upcoming, the front-page list of games about to release, not a sales target. Reaching it adds visibility at launch. See our 7,000 wishlists guide.
Where Flockbay fits
Flockbay's Steam numbers read your followers and estimated wishlists, and your exact wishlists from your own Steamworks key, free. Its publishing tools build the number: Steam page, trailers, posts, ads on your own accounts, free in beta until 1 December 2026.
Questions
- What percentage of Steam wishlists buy at launch?
- For bigger launches, GameDiscoverCo found a median of about 15% in the first week (10% for games above $10), with wide variation.