How to estimate a game's sales and revenue from its Steam reviews
2 min read
By Eduardo Orellana ·
Take the game's total Steam review count, multiply by a range of roughly 20 to 60 to estimate copies sold, then multiply by an average sale price well below the full price (discounts and regional pricing pull it down; a common assumption is 50 to 70% of full price) for gross revenue. Subtract Steam's 30% share (lower above $10 million and $50 million), refunds, VAT and sales taxes for an estimate of what the developer received. Always give a range.
A worked example
A $15 game with 1,000 reviews:
- Copies: 1,000 × 20 to 60 = 20,000 to 60,000.
- Average price paid: about $9 (60% of $15).
- Gross: about $180,000 to $540,000.
- After Steam's 30%: about $126,000 to $378,000, before refunds, taxes and any publisher's share.
What skews it
- Free weekends, bundles and giveaways add players who review differently.
- Review prompts in the game raise the review rate.
- Some genres' players review far more than others'.
- Price: cheaper games tend to have more sales per review.
Use it for comparables
The point is to size a genre before you commit to it: what the median game like yours made, not what the top one did. Pick ten comparables from the last three years, not only the hits.
Where Flockbay fits
Flockbay shows your own game's followers, an estimated wishlist range, and exact wishlists on your Steamworks key, kept on your machine. Free on every account.